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The Private-Company Pricing Checklist
The seven questions I work through before any IC or term sheet, and the silences in a data room that quietly reprice a deal. From years inside corporate development and building Value Alpha.
1 Normalize the earnings
Start from real owner earnings (SDE or adjusted EBITDA), not headline profit. Add back the owner's salary, one-time costs, and personal expenses, but only the add-backs that survive the sale.
Ask: which of these add-backs disappear the day the founder leaves? Those are not add-backs. They are the business.
2 Test revenue quality
Two businesses with identical revenue are not worth the same. Separate recurring from one-time, measure net retention, and look at how revenue was won, durable demand or a few lucky contracts.
Ask: if I subtract everything non-recurring, what is left, and is it growing?
3 Map customer concentration
Concentration is a discount, full stop. One customer at 40% of revenue is a different risk profile than fifty customers at under 5% each, even at the same total.
Ask: what happens to the price if the largest customer leaves in year one?
4 Measure owner dependence
If the relationships, the selling, and the judgment all live with one person, a buyer is purchasing a job, not an asset. The more the business runs without the owner, the higher the multiple.
Ask: could a new owner step in next quarter without revenue walking out the door?
5 Build a defensible comparable set
Comparables are triangulation, not an answer. For every comp, state why it belongs and where it differs. A public multiple borrowed without a discount for size, liquidity, and concentration overstates value.
Ask: for each comp, what is the one reason it is not actually like this business?
6 Identify the buyer type
This is the factor a formula cannot see. A financial buyer prices a standalone return. A strategic buyer prices your business inside theirs, cross-sell, cost removed, capability not built, a competitor denied, and will rationally pay far more.
Ask: who is actually at the table, and what is this worth to them?
7 Produce a range, with sensitivities
Never a single point. Show the range, the assumptions behind each end of it, and what moves the number. A value you cannot defend a range around is a value you do not understand.
Ask: what two assumptions, if wrong, would move this the most?
Before you sign: listen for the silences
Sellers curate. The most valuable diligence starts with one question: given how this company wants to be seen, what would it least want me to look at?
- Customer concentration that is technically disclosed but never highlighted
- A renewal closer and less certain than the narrative implies
- A key person whose quiet departure would reprice the whole thing
- Margins propped up by a one-time event dressed as run-rate
- A growth story that is really one channel that may not repeat
The one-line version: price is a judgment, not a formula. Build the inputs rigorously, make every assumption visible, and decide who the buyer really is. The rest is detail.
FAQ
Questions, answered
What is in the private-company pricing checklist?
It is the seven questions to work through before any IC or term sheet: normalize the earnings, test revenue quality, map customer concentration, measure owner dependence, build a defensible comparable set, identify the buyer type, and produce a range with sensitivities. It also covers the silences in a data room that quietly reprice a deal.
Who is this checklist for?
Anyone heading into an IC, a term sheet, or a sale who needs to price a private company. It draws on years inside corporate development and building Value Alpha.
Is this a formal valuation?
No. Price is a judgment, not a formula. The checklist helps you build the inputs rigorously, make every assumption visible, and produce a range with sensitivities rather than a single point.
When the number matters
Pressure-test a real decision
If you are heading into an IC, a term sheet, or a sale, I take on a small number of advisory engagements. Tell me the decision and I'll tell you honestly if I'm the right person.
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