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The Private-Company Pricing Checklist

The seven questions I work through before any IC or term sheet, and the silences in a data room that quietly reprice a deal. From years inside corporate development and building Value Alpha.

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1 Normalize the earnings

Start from real owner earnings (SDE or adjusted EBITDA), not headline profit. Add back the owner's salary, one-time costs, and personal expenses, but only the add-backs that survive the sale.

Ask: which of these add-backs disappear the day the founder leaves? Those are not add-backs. They are the business.

2 Test revenue quality

Two businesses with identical revenue are not worth the same. Separate recurring from one-time, measure net retention, and look at how revenue was won, durable demand or a few lucky contracts.

Ask: if I subtract everything non-recurring, what is left, and is it growing?

3 Map customer concentration

Concentration is a discount, full stop. One customer at 40% of revenue is a different risk profile than fifty customers at under 5% each, even at the same total.

Ask: what happens to the price if the largest customer leaves in year one?

4 Measure owner dependence

If the relationships, the selling, and the judgment all live with one person, a buyer is purchasing a job, not an asset. The more the business runs without the owner, the higher the multiple.

Ask: could a new owner step in next quarter without revenue walking out the door?

5 Build a defensible comparable set

Comparables are triangulation, not an answer. For every comp, state why it belongs and where it differs. A public multiple borrowed without a discount for size, liquidity, and concentration overstates value.

Ask: for each comp, what is the one reason it is not actually like this business?

6 Identify the buyer type

This is the factor a formula cannot see. A financial buyer prices a standalone return. A strategic buyer prices your business inside theirs, cross-sell, cost removed, capability not built, a competitor denied, and will rationally pay far more.

Ask: who is actually at the table, and what is this worth to them?

7 Produce a range, with sensitivities

Never a single point. Show the range, the assumptions behind each end of it, and what moves the number. A value you cannot defend a range around is a value you do not understand.

Ask: what two assumptions, if wrong, would move this the most?

Before you sign: listen for the silences

Sellers curate. The most valuable diligence starts with one question: given how this company wants to be seen, what would it least want me to look at?

  • Customer concentration that is technically disclosed but never highlighted
  • A renewal closer and less certain than the narrative implies
  • A key person whose quiet departure would reprice the whole thing
  • Margins propped up by a one-time event dressed as run-rate
  • A growth story that is really one channel that may not repeat

The one-line version: price is a judgment, not a formula. Build the inputs rigorously, make every assumption visible, and decide who the buyer really is. The rest is detail.

FAQ

Questions, answered

What is in the private-company pricing checklist?

It is the seven questions to work through before any IC or term sheet: normalize the earnings, test revenue quality, map customer concentration, measure owner dependence, build a defensible comparable set, identify the buyer type, and produce a range with sensitivities. It also covers the silences in a data room that quietly reprice a deal.

Who is this checklist for?

Anyone heading into an IC, a term sheet, or a sale who needs to price a private company. It draws on years inside corporate development and building Value Alpha.

Is this a formal valuation?

No. Price is a judgment, not a formula. The checklist helps you build the inputs rigorously, make every assumption visible, and produce a range with sensitivities rather than a single point.

When the number matters

Pressure-test a real decision

If you are heading into an IC, a term sheet, or a sale, I take on a small number of advisory engagements. Tell me the decision and I'll tell you honestly if I'm the right person.

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